As Stormont teeters on the brink of collapse, the blame game has begun.
PIRA’s existence and diversions from benign ‘comrades club’, or UUP ‘electioneering’, are seen as chief culprits. Neither accusation is satisfactory.
Whether one heeds the ‘it’s gone away’ claim of the IRA’s most knowledgeable non-member, the bigger threat is not PIRA remnants but republican militants beyond, striving to acquire IRA title deeds.
The charge of ‘electioneering’ – just fancy, a political party doing that – seems odd. UUP fortunes were reviving anyway, before the walkout. Better leadership and election pacts have helped. Opposition could even bolster a revived Stormont.
With the UUP again jumping first, in a different direction from 1999, there are few incentives for the DUP to remain in the Executive. Unionist leaders never lost ground by criticising Sinn Fein or the IRA and suspension seems inevitable.
Of longer-term significance is whether there is a future for an Executive which has achieved virtually zero in the last two years.
It’s not that the people reject the Executive, Assembly or even the concept of power-sharing. The 2015 Northern Ireland Election survey revealed majorities in favour of all three – among unionists and nationalists.
On this basic reading at least, the loveless marriage should stay together – for the sake of the electors.
Yet the same study also shows the visceral loathing between unionists and nationalists which has healed not one jot and renders the institutions so dysfunctional.
Twenty-one years after fighting a far bloodier conflict, England and Germany were settling differences in a World Cup final.
Twenty-one years after the first PIRA ceasefire, Northern Ireland’s two main communities remain locked in a dead-end of mutual suspicion and recrimination, fighting a proxy war which both fear they are losing.
Not all think the ‘war’ is over. Fewer than half of DUP and UUP voters believe that there is a lasting peace.
The extent of antipathy is still acute. Less than one per cent of Sinn Fein voters offer any sort of liking for the DUP. Just in case we don’t get the message, 98 per cent say they ‘dislike’ or ‘strongly dislike’ the DUP – and no prizes for guessing which of those two categories is the larger.
Liking for the UUP soars to 1.6 per cent – possibly a disquieting doubling for the UUP leadership, whilst, among DUP and UUP supporters, two per cent admit to some regard for Sinn Fein.
The overwhelming hostility towards parties from the ‘other side’ might matter less if the institutions were seen as functioning, but only 28 per cent of Sinn Fein voters believe unionist and nationalist parties are cooperating well in the Assembly.
Yet voters appear warm and trusting compared to party memberships. A majority of DUP members believe that policing reforms have gone too far. Only 36 per cent view policing boards as having benefited from Sinn Fein’s presence and those believing that most Catholics now support the police are in a minority.
Most believe that republican violence remains ‘a major threat’ and, as an issue, it ranks higher than education, crime, environment and housing.
Only a minority of those DUP members believe cross-community consent should be necessary to pass legislation. As for views on their main government partner, Sinn Fein, take your pick between ‘strongly dislike’, at 87 per cent, or the comparative warm bath of mere ‘dislike’, at 11 per cent.
Trust in the Deputy First Minister? A rating of 0.8, on a 0 (no trust) to 10 (maximum trust) scale suggests a certain scepticism. No doubt if Sinn Fein ever open up to a membership survey, the antipathy-ometer will reach reciprocal heights.
All this enmity – and that’s before we consider all those issues not dealt with by the Executive, where divisions are equally acute: parades, prosecutions and the past. Neither direct rule nor devolved power-sharing offer much hope of resolution.
The assumption of advocates of power-sharing is that differences between rival national blocs will eventually bio-degrade, as fears and suspicions diminish. We still await the evidence.
• Jon Tonge is Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool. He directed the 2015 Northern Ireland election study and co-authored The Democratic Unionist Party: From Protest to Power.