THERE are challenging times ahead for Northern Ireland as the full implications of the flags protests sink in.
In the past street protests have flared up briefly only to subside. Most of us probably thought that the Christmas holidays would serve as a natural break and that they would not re-surface in the New Year. That has proved not to be the case.
What do we learn from this? Two things. That disorder, from whatever source is not as easy to control as it used to be. Social media provides a means by which protests can be sustained without anyone seemingly in charge. And that the issue is not going to go away and needs to be addressed.
There are other repercussions as well. It would be interesting to see a political poll being carried out now to examine the impact that the protests have had on the political parties. Of especial interest would be what this all means for the Alliance, both mainstream unionist parties and the PUP.
Within unionism, who will gain? The street disorders have demonstrated that swathes of working class unionists feel alienated from their political representatives. Many don’t currently vote. There is currently a big push to sign many of these people on to the electoral register, but who will get their votes? The PUP has failed to make significant political progress and the defection of Dawn Purvis seemed to spell the end for it as a political force. Will it be able to grow support now? Or can mainstream unionists re-connect with lost voters? It is an important issue because one way or another strong and responsible leadership is required for a community that has become disaffected and has lost its way.
A core challenge for unionist politicians is whether they will actually be able to deliver for working-class communities.
There is the issue of the flag, and related matters of culture and identity, and the broader and deeper issues of poverty, deprivation, alienation and disaffection.
Westminster government policies, which are essentially about reducing public spending and rebalancing the economy are not appropriate for Northern Ireland because of the inevitable disproportionate impacts on the poor, and the sheer size of the public sector in Northern Ireland makes it impossible to rebalance the economy in a way that would be feasible in the south east of England.
To make a meaningful impact in working class areas: to improve health, education, job prospects and to regenerate costs money, money that would ultimately have to be secured from Westminster. And regeneration itself is much easier said than done: whoever wants to move their business to a trouble spot?
As to the flag: unless the legal challenges mounted by the PUP and DUP bear results, it is very hard to imagine Belfast City Council going back on its decision. So what happens then? Do we have more and more flag disputes across Northern Ireland? How do we achieve a solution which is accepted by all, does such a solution even exist?
As to the Alliance, whilst the affair must have seriously damaged Naomi Long’s prospects of holding on to her Westminster seat, the party overall is well positioned to make progress on other fronts provided its representatives are prepared to hold their nerve and make a strong stand in the middle ground.
Then we turn to the impact all this has had on community relations. Living on an interface is, and always has been tough. Residents on both sides of the divide inevitably get targeted at times of tension and the experience can be terrifying. Young people inevitably bear the brunt of this. A lot of work has gone on in recent years to build relations between the people of the Short Strand and neighbouring loyalist communities. Progress has been made, and yet today, all this is in jeopardy.
The tragedy is that people on either side of an interface inevitably share the same concerns and live similarly disadvantaged lives.
On top of all this we have the wider impacts on the economy, on local traders, on inward investment, and on tourism. 2012 was supposed to be a breakthrough year for visitors to Northern Ireland. 2013 will inevitably now mark a step backwards. Nobody wants to visit a place which is in conflict, no matter what the other attractions may be.
So there is much work to be done. What would make the biggest difference of all would be for the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to recognise the special difficulties faced by a region emerging from conflict, to accept that a driver of instability is deprivation, and to strongly argue the case at Westminster for increased support for Northern Ireland, so that our local politicians have the resources to tackle the severe economic challenges that lie at the heart of the troubles we face.
