A FURTHER 45,000 jobs will be lost in the UK construction industry this year as economic uncertainty continues, signalling a “lost decade” for the sector, a new report predicts today.
Nationally, output is set to fall by three per cent, while growth will be “slow and uneven” for the next five years, with a four per cent increase in output expected in 2013, followed by falls up to 2016, said CITB-ConstructionSkills.
The report said increasing economic uncertainty had “plagued” the industry, with changes to working practices adding to the gloomy outlook.
In Belfast, Construction Employers’ Federation chief John Armstrong said the province had been already been experiencing hardship for some years and warned a similar decline in Great Britain would only hit local firms harder.
“In Great Britain they are concerned about a ‘lost decade’ for the sector,” he said.
“Here we are more concerned about a ‘lost decade’ for the Northern Irish economy.”
From the first quarter (Q1) of 2010, he said the trends in construction output between Northern Ireland and Great Britain had diverged dramatically.
“The volume of new work in Northern Ireland has decreased by 23.5 per cent. In contrast, the volume of new work in Great Britain has increased by 11.5 per cent over the same time period.
“As a result of the continuing decline in local work opportunities most of our larger construction companies have successfully targeted work across the water. With half of the turnover of our top 20 now generated from projects in Great Britain it is concerning that this market is forecast to shrink in 2012.”
The result, he said, would be the further stalling of recovery here.
“Economists worldwide are stressing the need for governments to radically increase investment in infrastructure to kickstart economic growth. The Northern Ireland Executive needs to heed this advice and exercise its powers to the full.”
The biggest falls in employment will hit manual trades, with 6,300 fewer painters and decorators expected to be needed by 2016, 3,000 fewer labourers and 2,500 less bricklayers, according to the study.
One area of growth will be among construction managers, with an expected increase of 30,000 in the next few years.
Judy Lowe, deputy chairman of CITB-ConstructionSkills, (the Industry Training Board and Sector Skills Council), said the industry was in for a tough time.
“Infrastructure investment, the first nuclear power plants and the revival of private housing will help, but the hard fact remains that despite an increase in growth from 2013 onwards, output and employment levels in construction will not have reached their 2007-8 levels by the end of the forecast in 2016,” she said.
“Whilst increasing economic uncertainty has plagued the construction sector, changes to working practices have also contributed to the gloomy forecasts - with the biggest falls in employment in the period arising from the loss of manual trades.”
